Morgan Stanley Sees 14.2M Barrel Daily Export Drop, 4.8M Barrel Stock Draw
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate Persian Gulf exports plunged by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, reducing global stockpiles by 4.8 million barrels daily. They warn the market exists in a closed-yet-conditional state that may force sharper demand cuts if disruptions persist.
1. Export and Stockpile Estimates
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Martijn Rats estimate a 14.2 million barrels per day drop in Persian Gulf oil exports following the Strait of Hormuz closure, with global stockpiles falling by 4.8 million barrels daily as weaker demand partially offsets supply losses.
2. Dual-State Market Shock Risks
They describe the oil market as closed to most traffic but not entirely, and expected to open at any moment, warning that extreme inventory draws at record rates may not be sustainable and could necessitate sharper demand contraction if supply disruptions continue.
3. Benchmark Forecast Revisions
Peer Goldman Sachs raised Brent crude forecasts to average $90 per barrel in Q4 from a prior $80 outlook, reflecting nearly $30 hikes since the Hormuz shock and underpinning broader concerns about upside price risks and refined-product shortages.