Morningstar Values SpaceX at $780B, 48% Below Private Valuation Ahead of IPO
MORN•Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, 48% below the $1.5T private valuation, and assigns a narrow economic moat rating based on core launch and Starlink businesses. The firm highlights $11.3B in Starlink revenue and $4.4B in operating income, and warns IPO lockup expiry could trigger selling after the June 12 Nasdaq debut.
1. Valuation and Moat Rating
Morningstar pegged SpaceX’s enterprise value at $780 billion, about 48% below its most recent $1.5 trillion private market valuation. The firm applied a discounted cash flow framework and assigned a narrow economic moat, citing competitive pressures in key business areas.
2. Business Segment Assessment
The $780 billion valuation splits into roughly $611 billion for core launch and Starlink connectivity operations, with a probability-weighted $170 billion contribution from the AI division, which includes xAI’s Grok chatbot, Colossus data center plans, and social network initiatives.
3. Starlink and Launch Metrics
Starlink reported $11.3 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, while SpaceX’s launch business held 83% of global mass-to-orbit share, executing 165 missions last year, underscoring the strength of its space services.
4. IPO Timeline and Lockup Risks
A roadshow begins June 4 ahead of a June 12 Nasdaq debut, with a limited initial float supported by major banks. Morningstar warns that selling pressure may increase as lockup periods expire and insiders begin to liquidate positions.
