MPLX L.P. Taps AI-Driven Data Center Pipelines, Offers 7.39% Yield and $56 Target
MPLX yields 7.39% and carries a $56 Goldman Sachs target while tapping AI-driven data center demand and expanding natural gas/NGL pipelines to support mid-single-digit EBITDA growth. A project backlog and joint ventures through 2028 fuel 4.2% year-over-year EBITDA growth and offer flexibility to lower leverage toward a 4x ratio.
1. AI-Driven Data Center Demand Fuels Volume Growth
MPLX has emerged as a key beneficiary of surging data center construction, driven by expanding artificial intelligence workloads. Over the past twelve months, the company’s midstream assets have seen a 15% lift in throughput volumes from hyperscale cloud providers, translating into incremental fee-based revenue. Management projects that AI-related demand will account for nearly 10% of total gas processing volumes by 2028, up from roughly 3% in 2023, as new data center projects in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast come online.
2. Robust Pipeline Expansion and Joint Venture Backlog
MPLX’s capital program through 2028 includes over $3.5 billion earmarked for natural gas and NGL gathering, processing, and fractionation projects. This backlog largely comprises joint ventures with leading exploration companies across the Marcellus and Utica basins, where MPLX holds a combined 600,000 horsepower of compression capacity slated for completion by year-end 2026. These projects are structured with long-term throughput commitments, underpinning visibility into mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth beyond current levels.
3. Strong Distributions, Valuation Appeal, and Leverage Flexibility
With a current distribution yield near 7.4%, MPLX ranks among the highest-yielding entities in the midstream space. Year-to-date distributable cash flow per unit has grown by 4.2% versus the prior year, supporting a sustained quarterly payout increase. The partnership operates at a leverage ratio around 4.8x net debt to EBITDA, leaving room to optimize capital structure toward its long-term target of 4.0x. That flexibility should enable accretive bolt-on acquisitions or strategic buybacks, while current valuation multiples remain compelling relative to peer MLP and debt-capital metrics.