Ford Seeks Geely Partnership as Supplier Fire Disrupts Supply and F-150 Probe Expands

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Ford is in discussions with Geely for a manufacturing and technology partnership, according to eight insiders, while its aluminum supplier Novelis remains below full output four months after a September fire. Additionally, the NHTSA has expanded its safety probe into 1.27 million F-150 pickups over unexpected downshifts.

1. Ford Explores Manufacturing and Technology Partnership with Geely

According to eight people familiar with the discussions, Ford Motor Company is in early-stage talks with China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group to collaborate on vehicle manufacturing and shared technology development. The potential alliance would allow both automakers to pool R&D resources for next-generation powertrains, including hybrid and electric architectures. Sources indicate Ford is seeking cost-effective production solutions for its compact SUVs and small electric cars, while Geely aims to leverage Ford’s established global distribution network. Any formal agreement would mark Ford’s most significant corporate tie-up in Asia since its joint venture with Changan Automobile in 2001.

2. Strong Stock Performance and Upcoming Earnings Expectations

Ford’s shares have risen approximately 43.6% over the past 12 months, outpacing peers in the auto, tires and trucks sector. Year-to-date comparisons show Ford edging ahead of Modine Holdings, driven by robust truck deliveries and growing margin contributions from its commercial vehicle division. Analysts surveyed by AutoForecast Solutions project Ford will report Q4 2025 revenue of about $42 billion, roughly 3% above consensus estimates, backed by $1.8 billion in North American truck margins. The company’s cash flow generation remains healthy, with free cash flow expected to exceed $4 billion for the fiscal year.

3. EV Strategy Under Scrutiny and Rating Downgrade

Following a 43.6% rally in its stock over the last year, several sell-side analysts have trimmed their recommendations to 'hold,' citing deteriorating EV fundamentals. In Q3 2025, Ford reported strong overall revenue growth and positive operating cash flow, but adjusted net income fell by 12% year-over-year due to looming write-downs on electric vehicle assets. Ford’s EV sales volume dropped by 18% sequentially, and its U.S. market share in battery electric vehicles declined to 8.2%, significantly trailing competitors such as Tesla and Volkswagen. Concerns center on production ramp delays and higher-than-expected battery costs.

4. Supply Chain Disruption and Safety Investigation

Production of aluminum at Ford supplier Novelis has yet to return to pre-September levels after a major fire, delaying sheet metal deliveries critical to Ford’s best-selling F-150 pickups. Two industry sources estimate the output shortfall could reduce Ford’s Q1 2026 truck volumes by up to 10,000 units. Meanwhile, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has expanded its probe into approximately 1.27 million F-150s over reports of unexpected downshifts and rear-wheel lockup. Ford is cooperating with the inquiry and has initiated a technical review of the affected transmission software.

Sources

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