Novo Nordisk issued a surprise downward revision for fiscal 2026, forecasting a 5–13% decline in both sales and operating profit. The company cited sustained pricing pressures under the Most Favoured Nations agreement, patent expiries on key diabetes products and intensifying competition, particularly from U.S. payers negotiating deeper discounts on its flagship obesity drug. Following the guidance, shares plunged roughly 18% in Copenhagen, erasing nearly $50 billion in market capitalization and marking the steepest multi‐day loss since late 2024.

In the fourth quarter, Novo Nordisk delivered revenue growth of 10% at constant exchange rates and reported an obesity franchise expansion of 31%. Despite beating consensus on both earnings and top-line growth, net profit remained flat year-over-year due to margin compression and elevated manufacturing costs for the oral Wegovy pill. Management acknowledged that higher production expenses and lower pricing on the new pill format will continue to weigh on margins in 2026, tempering optimism generated by strong volume gains in 2025.

Analysts maintain a Buy recommendation on NVO, noting the current forward P/E of 13.8 represents a decade-low valuation relative to historical peers. Novo Nordisk is betting on sustained volume growth—projecting double-digit unit increases for its GLP-1 portfolio—and a robust late-stage pipeline to offset declining average selling prices. Long‐term investors view the weakness as an entry opportunity ahead of anticipated recovery once pricing headwinds ease post-2026 and patent cliffs are navigated.

To bolster shareholder value, Novo Nordisk initiated a DKK 3.8 billion share buyback running from February through May 2026, as part of a broader DKK 15 billion programme approved at last year’s general meeting. Up to 400 million B shares may be repurchased under the safe-harbour rules of MAR, with Nordea Bank serving as lead manager. The programme aims to neutralize dilution from incentive plans and support the share price during this period of strategic investment in production capacity and R&D.