Oil prices surge near $100 lifts Exxon’s Q1 earnings by $4.5B
Oil prices have spiked as national gas averages hit $3.97 and Brent crude trades near $98 per barrel after a 63% year-to-date rise. Exxon Mobil projects roughly $4.5 billion in incremental Q1 earnings, or about $1.08 more EPS, if current oil prices hold.
1. War-Driven Energy Price Surge
The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has driven national average gas prices from $2.92 to $3.97 in 30 days, a 36% monthly increase. Brent crude has climbed roughly 63% since January to about $98 per barrel, prompting warnings of the largest-ever global supply shock.
2. CERAWeek Attendance Disruptions
Saudi Aramco’s CEO and the UAE energy minister both canceled their CERAWeek keynote appearances to address war-related fallout. Chevron’s CEO highlighted unpriced physical disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling deeper market instability.
3. Exxon Mobil’s Q1 Earnings Upside
At current crude levels near $100 a barrel, Exxon Mobil anticipates approximately $4.5 billion of incremental first-quarter earnings, equating to about $1.08 of additional EPS. The company’s high-growth upstream assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana underpin its bullish outlook on free cash flow.