Oil's rally losing some steam?
USO•U.S. crude was just over $90 a barrel, down more than 2% on the day, after reaching $106.75 on September 15. The energy sector was up roughly 39% this year but had fallen more than 5% since its September 15 record close.
1. Crude rally cools
NYMEX crude futures remained on track for a September gain of more than 5%, which would be a third consecutive monthly advance. Earlier in the month, crude had risen more than 24% to $106.75, but did not clear its May peak; prices were last just over $90 a barrel, down more than 2% on the day.
2. Key price levels
Initial support was identified at the September 23 low of $88.71 and the rising 200-day moving average near $82.15. A move below the monthly Ichimoku Cloud, spanning roughly $82 to $78 in October, would add weight to a more bearish outlook. Resistance is at $96.78-$99.10, followed by $106.75-$109.47; a break above $109.47 could reopen a test of the March peak at $119.48.
3. Energy momentum fades
The energy sector was the S&P 500's best-performing sector this year, up roughly 39% and on pace for its strongest annual gain since 2022, but had fallen more than 5% since its September 15 record close and was down 1.9% month-to-date. Its 9-month RSI peaked well below its March high and was rolling over, creating a bearish divergence.
