Oppenheimer Raises Ondas’ Price Target to $16 After Backlog Jumps 180%

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Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating for Ondas and raised the price target from $12 to $16, citing strong strategic growth initiatives and a 180% backlog increase to $65.3 million. The company projects Q4 2025 revenue of $27 million to $29 million—a 51% rise over prior guidance—boosting visibility for 2026 performance.

1. Analysts Raise Price Targets After Revenue Forecast Upgrade

On January 20, 2026, Ondas Holdings shares jumped nearly 8% following a series of analyst upgrades. H.C. Wainwright boosted its price target from $12 to $25, highlighting a sales pipeline exceeding $500 million and Ondas’ leading position in autonomous aerial and robotics markets. Oppenheimer maintained its “Outperform” rating and raised its target from $12 to $16, citing strong backlog growth and strategic partnerships. Needham and Lake Street also lifted their targets, underscoring broad institutional confidence in Ondas’ 2026 outlook.

2. 2026 Revenue Guidance Increased to $180 Million

At a recent investor day, Ondas raised its full‐year 2026 revenue forecast from $170 million to $180 million. This followed robust Q4 2025 guidance of $27 million to $29 million—51% above prior estimates—and full‐year 2025 revenue projections of $47.6 million to $49.6 million, representing a 23% beat over original targets. Management attributes the uplift to accelerating drone-in-a-box deployments in defense and infrastructure monitoring applications.

3. Backlog Surges 180% to $65.3 Million

Ondas’ order backlog climbed 180% year-over-year to $65.3 million, up from $23.5 million at the end of 2024. The backlog increase reflects growing demand for the company’s Iron Drone counter-UAS system and new ground robotics solutions acquired through Apeiro Motion. A larger backlog provides greater revenue visibility for 2026 and supports Ondas’ transition from development to commercial scale deployment.

4. Elevated Trading and Options Activity Highlight Momentum

Trading volume on January 20 reached 149 million shares—over 50% above the three-month average—as investors rotated back into the stock after dilution concerns tied to a planned $1 billion direct share offering. Unusual call option volume spiked by 142%, suggesting institutional players are positioning for further upside. While the offering could pressure share count, strong demand signals and improved fundamentals have helped Ondas recover its share price.

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