Pagaya Posts 26% Revenue Growth and Profit, Price Targets Cut to $30–$32
Pagaya Technologies posted record 2025 GAAP profit with revenues up 26% year-over-year and expanded margins. Analysts trimmed price targets to $32 and $30 after Q4 revenue of $321 million missed consensus and fiscal 2026 guidance of $1.4–1.575 billion versus $1.52 billion estimates.
1. Record GAAP Profit and Revenue Growth
Pagaya Technologies swung to a record GAAP profit in 2025 as revenues climbed 26% year-over-year, driven by margin expansion across its AI-powered lending platform. The company’s improved profitability reflects stronger risk management and higher demand for its data science services.
2. Q4 Shortfall and 2026 Guidance
In Q4, Pagaya reported $321.036 million in revenue, falling short of the $349.51 million consensus estimate. Management guided fiscal 2026 revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, slightly below the $1.52 billion consensus, while highlighting investments that position the firm for durable long-term growth.
3. Analyst Price Target Cuts
Canaccord lowered its price target to $32 from $39 and maintained a Buy rating, citing conservative loan approval scaling as a buying opportunity. Keefe Bruyette cut its target to $30 from $35 while keeping an Outperform rating, noting new customer wins, rising loan application volumes, strong funding demand and operating leverage.