Par Pacific Eyes 253% Q4 EPS Growth with 9% Float Buyback and $250M Program
Par Pacific will report Q4 results on Feb. 24, with consensus EPS at $1.21 (+253% year-over-year), revenue at $1.71 billion (-6.6%) and an Earnings ESP of +1.25%. The refiner retired about 9% of shares in 2024 buybacks and initiated a $250 million program to repurchase 11.5% of float while expanding sustainable‐energy assets.
1. Q4 Earnings Guidance
Par Pacific will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24 after the close. Analysts forecast EPS of $1.21, implying a 253% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $1.71 billion, down 6.6%. The company’s Earnings ESP stands at +1.25%, suggesting a possible upside to consensus.
2. Historical EPS Surprises and Market Environment
Over the past four quarters, Par Pacific delivered an average EPS surprise of 77.5%, beating estimates in three of those periods. Weaker crude prices—WTI averaged $59.64 per barrel in Q4 2025 versus $70.69 a year earlier—likely supported refining margins during the quarter.
3. Share Repurchases and Strategic Pivot
In 2024, Par Pacific retired roughly 9% of its float through buybacks and has launched a new $250 million program targeting another 11.5% reduction. The company is also investing in sustainable‐energy projects and leveraging high-barrier island economics to strengthen its downstream and logistics businesses.