Qualcomm Downgrade Triggers 5% Drop as Ray-Ban Glasses Target 20–30M Units
Qualcomm shares fell 5% after Mizuho downgraded it from Outperform to Neutral, citing Apple modem share losses and softer smartphone demand, with support around $160 ahead of February earnings. It also raised Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses production targets to 20–30 million units and launched the Dragonwing IQ10 robotics platform.
1. Qualcomm Taps Explosive Demand for Meta Ray-Ban Smart Glasses
Qualcomm has significantly upgraded production targets for its Meta partnership, boosting forecasts to 20–30 million Ray-Ban smart glasses units over the next 12 months. This surge in personal AI wearables comes after initial orders far exceeded expectations, with inventory backlogs spanning multiple quarters. Qualcomm’s custom Snapdragon AR compute platform is cited as the key differentiator, delivering power efficiency gains of over 30% versus competing solutions and enabling all-day battery life in a glasses form factor.
2. Dragonwing IQ10 Series Solidifies Robotics Platform Leadership
With the launch of its Dragonwing IQ10 edge-AI processor series, Qualcomm is positioning itself as a central enabler of next-generation robotics. The IQ10 family combines dedicated neural processing units and real-time sensor fusion, targeting use cases from autonomous logistics to consumer humanoid robots. A highlighted partnership with Figure Technologies involves integrating IQ10 chips into prototype humanoid platforms, which have demonstrated 25% faster motion planning and a 15% reduction in power consumption compared to rival designs.
3. Core Handset Business Faces Near-Term Headwinds
Despite the AI surge, Qualcomm’s traditional modem and RF segment is under pressure. A recent downgrade by a major Wall Street firm shifted rating from Outperform to Neutral, citing expected share losses in flagship smartphone modems and persistent softness in global handset demand. Qualcomm’s management has guided for flat unit shipments in its core handset channel this fiscal year, contrasted with mid-single-digit growth targets previously communicated, prompting a near-5% pullback in the share count during early trading sessions.
4. Automotive and IoT Growth May Not Fully Offset Handset Slowdown
Outside of smartphones, Qualcomm’s automotive and IoT divisions continue to grow at strong double-digit rates, driven by in-vehicle connectivity platforms and industrial edge-AI modules. Automotive revenue climbed 28% year-over-year last quarter, while IoT bookings expanded 22%. However, analysts warn this momentum may fall short of compensating for flat to down volumes in handsets. All eyes are on Qualcomm’s early February earnings report, which investors view as a pivotal inflection point for guidance on handset recovery and AI-related licensing revenue ramps.