Qualcomm’s MACD Bearish Crossover Predates 10% Fall; Croban Slashes Stake by 77%

QCOMQCOM

Qualcomm’s MACD chart logged a bearish crossover just before Christmas, marking a momentum shift that preceded a 10% share decline the last time it occurred. In the third quarter, Croban trimmed its Qualcomm holding by 77.4%, reducing its stake to 1,560 shares worth $260,000.

1. Technical Indicator Flashing Bearish Signal

Just before Christmas, Qualcomm’s MACD chart registered a bearish crossover for the first time since early 2022, signaling a clear momentum shift. In the week following the crossover, trading volume rose 15% as short interest ticked up by 8%, reminiscent of the last instance when the stock declined by 10% over a two-week span. This technical red flag has prompted several quantitative funds to reduce their exposure in recent sessions.

2. Croban and Institutional Stake Movements

In its latest Form 13F filing, Croban reduced its Qualcomm position by 77.4%, selling 5,333 shares and retaining 1,560 shares worth approximately $260,000. Meanwhile, Kingstone Capital Partners Texas boosted its holdings by a staggering 656,661%, ending the quarter with 58.8 million shares valued at roughly $9.36 billion. Norges Bank initiated a new position valued at about $2.71 billion, and Amundi added 3.19 million shares (up 38.2%), bringing its total to 11.53 million shares valued at $1.87 billion. Viking Global Investors and Rafferty Asset Management also increased their stakes by 120.1% and 59.1%, respectively.

3. Latest Quarterly Results and Dividend Update

In the fiscal third quarter, Qualcomm reported earnings per share of $3.00, beating consensus by $0.13, on revenue of $11.27 billion, surpassing estimates by $0.53 billion. Net margin expanded to 12.51% and return on equity reached 43.22%, while revenue grew 10.0% year-over-year. The company projected first-quarter EPS between $3.30 and $3.50. On December 18, Qualcomm paid a quarterly dividend of $0.89 per share, representing an annualized payout of $3.56 and a payout ratio of 72.8%.

4. Insider Dispositions and Analyst Sentiment

Chief Accounting Officer Patricia Y. Grech sold 513 shares during late November, reducing her stake by 71.7%, and Executive Vice President Akash J. Palkhiwala sold 10,000 shares on December 18, cutting his holding by 18.3%. Over the past three months, insiders have net sold 49,822 shares. On the brokerage front, 13 analysts maintain a buy recommendation, seven are neutral, and one advises selling, reflecting a generally constructive outlook among research firms.

Sources

MD