HOOD•HOOD•Truist maintained a Buy rating with a $100 target after June equities, options and prediction volumes set records, implying double-digit Q2 transaction revenue upside and mid-single-digit overall revenue gains; analysts upped targets to $130 and $110. Meta’s new Arena prediction app, tapping 3.56 billion users, threatens Robinhood’s event-contract business.
Robinhood’s June trading volumes across equities, options and prediction markets each reached record levels, with crypto volumes climbing month-over-month. Projecting these trends through Q2 suggests transaction revenues could rise by more than 10%, driving mid-single-digit gains in overall quarterly revenue.
Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $100 target, forecasting double-digit transaction revenue upside. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $130, while Argus set $110, citing growth drivers like the Rothera launch, the FIFA World Cup boost and efficiency gains from a 10% workforce reduction.
Robinhood issued $2 billion in convertible debt to fund share buybacks, capped call hedges and expansion, though future share dilution remains a key investor risk. The note structure prompted brief premarket share weakness linked to arbitrage activity around the capital raise.
Meta is developing Arena, a new prediction markets app using a points-based system and tapping its 3.56 billion daily users. This initiative could intensify competition for Robinhood’s event-contract offerings and pressure its share in the prediction trading space.
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