Seaport Global Downgrades Sirius XM Citing Rising Subscriber Losses, Slowing ARPU
Seaport Global cut its rating on Sirius XM to Neutral from Buy after the company forecast higher self-pay net subscriber losses in 2026 and warned that ongoing promotional discounting will slow average revenue per user growth. The downgrade followed flat fourth-quarter sales and earnings per share well below analysts’ expectations.
1. Analyst Downgrade and 2026 Guidance
Seaport Global lowered its rating on Sirius XM from Buy to Neutral after the company’s 2026 outlook projected an increase in self-pay net subscriber losses compared with last year. The firm highlighted that promotional discounts intended to boost subscriber count will partially offset planned price increases, leading to slower average revenue per user growth.
2. Disappointing Fourth-Quarter Results
In the fourth quarter, Sirius XM reported flat year-over-year revenue and earnings per share that fell significantly below Street estimates. The weak performance underscored challenges in driving revenue growth despite a recovering auto sector.
3. Market Reaction and Stock Volatility
Shares dropped 4.2% in early trading on the downgrade and guidance miss, marking one of 14 moves over 5% in the past year. While the stock is up 6.1% since January, it remains nearly 20% below its 52-week peak, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism about long-term growth prospects.