SMBC Nikko lifts Japan FY2026 real GDP growth view to 0.8% on lower crude oil imports
SMFG•Japan growth outlook raised
SMBC Nikko, part of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, published a Japan economic outlook, lifting real GDP growth forecasts to 0.8% in FY2026 and 1.1% in FY2027.
Nominal GDP is seen rising 2.8% in FY2026 and 3% in FY2027. The FY2026 upgrade reflects lower crude oil import costs.
Recent GDP, inflation and BOJ path
Apr-Jun 2026 real GDP grew 1.1% QoQ annualized, undershooting the 2% consensus, with lower imports driving growth.
Private consumption and capex fell quarter-on-quarter as inflation rose on higher crude prices and yen weakness.
The BOJ path was revised to three hikes in Sep. 2026, Jan. 2027 and Jun. 2027, with the policy rate projected to peak at 1.75%.
