Some summer lull

• China managed to add a small volume of crude oil to inventories in July, as weak refinery processing outweighed a sharp drop in imports, ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell wrote.
• India's power system has crossed a threshold that tells a very different story from the one usually conveyed by electricity generation data as clean energy sources now account for more than fossil fuels, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire wrote.

The oil market may be pausing to catch its breath, but the broader picture remains dire. The International Energy Agency last week forecast global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, 510,000 bpd more than in the previous month's report, as the ongoing conflict and elevated fuel prices weigh on demand. Global oil supply is projected to decline by an average 4.3 million bpd this year.

The oil market is not uncommon to enter a lull during peak summer holiday weeks, and this year is no exception, despite the biggest energy shock in decades, as traders take a breather after six months of relentless volatility.

Brent crude is hovering just below $90 a barrel as uncertainty over the Middle East keeps risk premiums elevated. Stalled U.S.-Iran talks have dimmed hopes for a quick end to the conflict and for a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the U.S. while U.S. President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher gasoline prices while the conflict continues.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, following attacks on tankers. Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed, versus 31 for the prior weekend.