South Bow (SOBO) traded lower as the market focused on near-term uncertainty around its proposed Prairie Connector project, following the end of the open season on March 30. With the company expected to take roughly 60 days to assess whether commercial support is sufficient to advance the project, investors appear to be de-risking ahead of any read-through on binding commitments and timing.

In its March 5 fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 update, South Bow reaffirmed 2026 guidance and projected normalized EBITDA of about $1.03 billion (±2%), with roughly 90% secured through committed arrangements carrying minimal commodity price or volumetric risk. The company also flagged that Keystone Pipeline System segment normalized EBITDA is expected to be about $15 million lower in 2026 versus 2025, reflecting lower EBITDA associated with planned maintenance capital expenditures following an active 2025 integrity program and continued pressure tied to tight pricing differentials on the U.S. Gulf Coast segment.

The Prairie Connector process introduces a binary near-term catalyst: strong commitments could support a growth narrative, while weaker demand could delay or shrink the opportunity set. With the review period now underway and limited public visibility into bid results, traders are reacting to the information vacuum rather than to a new earnings release. Separately, investors continue to weigh integrity and inspection requirements tied to prior Keystone incidents as a potential source of ongoing maintenance and compliance costs, even as the company has emphasized remedial actions and continued 2026 inspection activity.