SPDR S&P 500 ETF Up 1% YTD as 50% of Americans Forecast Stock Gains

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A January poll found 50% of U.S. adults expect stock market gains and 49% foresee economic growth, while 62% anticipate rising inflation and 50% foresee higher unemployment. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has risen 1% YTD, lagging the tech-light SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF at record highs.

1. Economic Sentiment Survey

A poll conducted Jan. 2–17 among U.S. adults found 50% expect stock market gains over the next six months and 49% foresee economic growth, while 62% anticipate rising inflation and 50% predict increasing unemployment, signaling mixed economic sentiment at the start of 2026.

2. ETF Performance Comparison

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has gained 1% year-to-date, trailing the tech-light SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, which surged to fresh record highs as industrial and financial stocks outperformed high-flying technology names.

3. Outlook on Rates and Labor Market

Respondents were split on interest rates, with 41% expecting cuts and 36% anticipating hikes, yet a majority remain concerned about inflation and job losses, suggesting that market optimism may face headwinds from rising cost pressures and labor market weakness.

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