Spotify Raises Premium Plan Price to $12.99, Q3 EPS Soars $1.96 Above Estimates
Spotify announced it will raise its U.S. Individual Premium price from $11.99 to $12.99 per month, effective February. In Q3, it reported $3.83 EPS on $5.01B revenue, topping consensus by $1.96 and $0.78B while delivering an 8.46% net margin.
1. Spotify’s U.S. Subscription Price Increase
In mid-January, Spotify announced a $1 per‐month increase to its Individual Premium plan in the U.S., raising it from $11.99 to $12.99. The price of Duo and Family plans also rose by $1 to $18.99 and $21.99 respectively, while student subscriptions went up to $6.99. Management justified the change by citing continued investment in exclusive podcast content, higher royalty payments to artists and record labels, and improvements to personalization algorithms. Executives project that the adjustments will drive an incremental $200 million in annualized revenue in North America, offsetting rising content acquisition costs and sustaining gross margin expansion above 25%.
2. Institutional Buying Boosts Spotify Stake
During the third quarter, Csenge Advisory Group increased its Spotify position by 277.8%, purchasing 2,317 additional shares and boosting its holding to 3,151 shares valued at $2.2 million. This move followed modest purchases by several smaller firms in the second and third quarters, including Knuff & Co, Total Investment Management and Heartwood Wealth Advisors, each adding positions worth roughly $27,000 to $33,000. Overall, institutional investors now control just over 84% of Spotify’s outstanding stock, underscoring growing confidence among asset managers in the company’s long-term growth trajectory and cash-flow generation potential.
3. Strong Earnings Drive Investor Confidence
Spotify reported third-quarter revenue of $5.01 billion, exceeding consensus forecasts by $780 million and representing a 7.1% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS of $3.83 surpassed estimates by nearly $2.00, driven by higher subscription ARPU following the U.S. price hikes and strong podcast advertising sales, which grew more than 30% during the period. Operating margin improved to 8.5%, up from 5.2% a year earlier, reflecting scale benefits and disciplined cost management. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance for low-double-digit revenue growth and mid-teens adjusted operating margin, while forecasting free cash flow above $1.5 billion for the fiscal year.
4. Analyst Ratings Remain Overwhelmingly Positive
Wall Street sentiment toward Spotify remains bullish. Two analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating, twenty-three carry Buy recommendations and nine have Hold ratings, resulting in an average consensus of Moderate Buy. Price targets range from $700 to $860, with an average of $743.90. Recent reports include UBS trimming its target to $800, Barclays cutting to $700 and Argus initiating coverage with a buy rating and $845 objective. Analysts cite accelerating podcast monetization, resilience of subscriber growth in mature markets and expanding gross margins as primary drivers underpinning current bullish forecasts.