Texas Instruments Sees Q4 Sales Up 10% and $5B Capex for 300 mm Fab Build
Texas Instruments shares traded at $202.67 on March 3 with trailing/forward P/Es of 38.5/31.85 after Q4 sales rose 10% YoY and Q1 guidance beat seasonal expectations. Capex of $5 billion in 2025 (tapering to $2–5 billion in 2026) funds 300 mm wafer fabs to cut costs ~40% and boost margins and cash flow.
1. Bullish Thesis on Analog Recovery
Texas Instruments has emerged from a multi-year analog semiconductor down-cycle with Q4 sales up 10% YoY and Q1 guidance that surpassed seasonal norms, driven by stabilization in industrial and automotive end markets and a portfolio of ~80,000 analog and embedded products sold to over 100,000 customers.
2. Fab Expansion and Financial Outlook
Management plans to invest $5 billion in 2025 (tapering to $2–5 billion in 2026) to expand 300 mm wafer fabs, reducing per-chip costs by ~40% and positioning the company for mid-single-digit revenue growth, ~60% gross margins and a significant increase in cash flow as utilization ramps.
3. Morgan Stanley Conference Presentation
At the 2026 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, executives reiterated the analog recovery thesis, outlined the fab expansion timeline and emphasized long-lifecycle products, supply reliability and secular tailwinds from electrification, factory automation and AI data-center demand.