The road to an all-electric car fleet will be bumpier than it looks: Maguire
USO•DNV projects battery electric vehicles will exceed 90% of passenger cars by 2050 in markets including China and Europe, but the pace of change will vary. Declining combustion-engine fleets in China and Europe may be partly offset by continued growth in conventional cars in India and other emerging markets.
1. Uneven fleet transition
Battery electric vehicles may eventually dominate passenger car fleets worldwide, but fleet data suggests the shift away from combustion engines will vary by region. Some countries are replacing conventional cars faster, while others are adding EVs alongside combustion-engine vehicles.
2. Regional projections
DNV estimates China has around 37.5 million passenger EVs in use, projected to exceed 165 million by 2035 and 360 million by 2050. Europe's combustion-engine fleet is projected to fall from around 284 million cars currently to 77 million by 2050, while North America's ICE fleet is projected to decline from around 290 million to 215 million by 2040. India’s ICE fleet, now estimated at around 73 million, is expected to peak at around 165 million in the late 2040s.
3. Fuel demand outlook
China and Europe are projected to remove well over 300 million combustion-engine passenger cars from their roads by 2050. Growth in conventional vehicle ownership in India and other emerging markets may partly offset those declines, making the retirement rate of combustion-engine cars a key factor for transport fuel demand.
