TotalEnergies Sees Flat Q1 Output, $2–$2.5 B Earnings Boost from Trading
TotalEnergies expects flat Q1 output at 2.55 million boe/d as Libya and Brazil startups offset 100,000 bpd of Middle East curtailments. Rising oil and gas prices plus stronger trading activity should boost working capital by $2–$2.5 billion and drive LNG earnings over 10% higher than in Q4.
1. Q1 Production and Project Startups
TotalEnergies expects first-quarter output to hold at roughly 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with new project startups in Libya and Brazil offsetting approximately 100,000 bpd of curtailed Middle East production after conflicts forced shutdowns in Qatar, Iraq and offshore UAE and damaged a Saudi refinery complex.
2. Earnings Boost Drivers
Higher oil and gas prices combined with strong trading activity are projected to add between $2 billion and $2.5 billion to working capital, driving a significant rise in exploration and production earnings compared with the prior quarter.
3. Segment Results and Margins
Liquefied natural gas production grew by 10%, with trading gains expected to lift LNG results well above Q4 levels, while European refining margins held at $11.40 per ton on over 90% utilization and integrated power and marketing services tracked roughly flat at around $500 million.
4. Analyst Outlook and Next Steps
Jefferies projects a potential 10% beat to consensus net income of €4.8 billion for the quarter, with TotalEnergies due to report full Q1 results on April 29 and shares having risen about 3% in premarket trading.