TSMC Warns DRAM Prices Could Jump 60% as HBM Supply Tightens

TSMTSM

TSMC’s Q1 2026 DRAM prices could surge 55–60% and NAND prices 33–38% due to HBM supply constraints, while smartphone shipments accounted for 30% of its Q3 revenue. Higher handset prices risk dampening consumer demand and could cause revenue guidance misses next year.

1. Q4 Revenue Surges on AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported fourth-quarter revenue of T$1,046.08 billion (about $33 billion), surpassing analysts’ expectations and marking a 20 percent year-over-year increase. This growth was driven by robust orders for artificial-intelligence-related chips, with its top customer accounting for nearly one-fifth of total sales. Foundry utilization rates exceeded 95 percent in advanced nodes, reflecting full capacity on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer processes.

2. Memory Inflation and Smartphone Headwinds

While data-center demand remains strong, rising prices for high-bandwidth memory and DRAM—up 50 percent year-over-year—pose a new challenge. Memory costs could increase another 40 percent in the first half of 2026, potentially cooling consumer electronics spending. Smartphones represented approximately 30 percent of third-quarter revenue; any pullback in handset demand due to higher component prices may weigh on guidance later in the year.

3. Geopolitical Pressure Spurs Stake Reduction

Activist investor Third Point LLC trimmed its stake in Taiwan Semiconductor by 23 percent during the third quarter, citing escalating geopolitical tensions between major markets. Despite this reduction, the chipmaker delivered net sales of $33.1 billion in Q3—up 30.3 percent year-over-year—and raised its dividend by 20 percent. The company also secured a U.S. export license to continue shipments to strategic customers in China.

4. Multi-Year Growth Outlook Bolstered by 2 nm Expansion

Analysts forecast earnings growth of roughly 25 percent in 2026, driven by a doubling of 2-nanometer production capacity by year-end. The company’s 2 nm node is already sold out through 2026, and management expects to price these wafers at a 10–20 percent premium over 3 nm. With a 72 percent share of the global foundry market and continued capital spending on advanced fabs, Taiwan Semiconductor is positioned for sustained multi-year revenue and profit expansion.

Sources

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