After a recent 10% pullback, Uber’s delivery segment remains one of the most underpenetrated growth engines in tech, with grocery delivery alone representing a $10 trillion global market that Uber currently captures roughly 1% of. Over the past year, delivery bookings have grown by more than 25%, and adjusted EBITDA margins in the segment have expanded by over 200 basis points as operational efficiencies and higher-margin advertising offerings ramp up. With grocery orders now accounting for 15% of total delivery volume—up from 8% a year ago—Uber’s logistics platform is leveraging its existing fleet of drivers and dark-store partnerships to accelerate frequency and average order values.

Having exited 2025 with consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow and operating profitability, Uber faces four critical tests in 2026 that will determine its long-term compounder potential: 1) expanding overall EBITDA margins while sustaining 20%+ year-over-year trip and delivery growth; 2) scaling its in-app advertising business—which now contributes 7% of revenue—without degrading ride or order frequency; 3) improving unit economics in Uber Eats beyond restaurants by deepening partnerships with national grocery chains and testing subscription bundles to boost customer retention; and 4) maintaining disciplined capital allocation, evidenced by a target return on invested capital above 15%, balanced buybacks, and conservative M&A spend despite a cash balance exceeding $7 billion.