UMB sees AI investment supporting US economic growth through 2027
UMBF•UMB Financial maintained a modest overweight to US equities in its Q3 2026 outlook, expecting AI infrastructure investment to support GDP growth of at least 2% through 2027. It said elevated energy prices could keep inflation above 3% into 2027 and threaten growth.
1. Growth outlook
UMB Financial maintained a modest overweight to US equities in its Q3 2026 outlook, citing resilient growth despite rising rates. It expects AI infrastructure investment to support GDP growth of at least 2% through 2027, with construction extending into 2028.
2. Rates and risks
Ten-year Treasury yields reached roughly 5.3%, and rates are expected to peak near current levels as inflation eases. UMB said persistently elevated energy prices could keep inflation above 3% into 2027, forcing more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and threatening growth. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% during the quarter, while the US Aggregate Bond Index fell 3.51% as yields rose.
