Verisk Estimates Over USD 10 Billion Losses from Venezuela’s 7.5-Magnitude Quake
VRSK•Verisk Analytics estimates economic losses from June 24 Venezuela earthquakes—a magnitude-7.2 foreshock followed by a magnitude-7.5 mainshock—will top USD 10 billion, marking the strongest seismic event since 1900. The firm flags elevated uncertainty in insured loss share due to Venezuela’s low insurance penetration, high inflation and sanctions complexities.
1. Earthquake Sequence and Economic Loss Estimate
On June 24, 2026, Venezuela experienced a rare earthquake doublet featuring a magnitude-7.2 foreshock followed 39 seconds later by a magnitude-7.5 mainshock, making it the strongest quake since 1900. Verisk’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group projects economic losses will exceed USD 10 billion, with over 1,400 buildings destroyed and more than 430 aftershocks recorded.
2. Insurance Market Uncertainty
Verisk highlights greater-than-normal uncertainty in estimating the insured share of losses due to Venezuela’s challenging macroeconomic environment, including sustained high inflation, currency devaluation, low insurance take-up rates and sanctions-related market constraints. Variations in coverage levels and property valuation practices add further complexity to modeling insured losses.
3. Modeling Scope and Exclusions
The economic loss estimate covers direct physical damage but excludes fire-following losses, landslides, loss adjustment expenses, damage to uninsured properties or infrastructure, and other non-modeled risks such as marine cargo, aviation and transit warehouse exposures. This delineation aims to isolate core seismic losses within Verisk’s analytics framework.
4. Implications for Verisk’s Risk Modeling Business
As global insurers assess the impact of a USD 10 billion-plus loss in a market with low penetration, demand for advanced catastrophe modeling and data analytics like Verisk’s is expected to rise. Verisk’s ability to navigate high-uncertainty environments could enhance its competitive positioning and drive adoption of its risk solutions.
