BofA raises Alphabet Q4 revenue forecast to $95.9B and EPS to $2.65
Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post increased Alphabet’s Q4 revenue forecast to $95.9 billion and EPS to $2.65, citing 15–16% Search growth and 14–15% YouTube gains. He also expects $28.0 billion in operating expenses (up 13%), and 119 bps margin expansion, boosting 2026 capex to $139 billion.
1. AI Integration and Strategic Partnerships
Alphabet has accelerated the rollout of its Gemini AI model across core products, integrating the technology into Google Search enhancements and the Google Assistant. In late January, the company signed a multi-year agreement with Apple to power Siri’s conversational capabilities, marking Alphabet’s first major AI partnership with a direct competitor. Industry sources estimate that Gemini’s deployment lifted daily active user interactions in Search by 12% in December, contributing to greater query monetization and stickiness.
2. Google Cloud Expansion and Backlog Growth
Google Cloud reported a services and infrastructure contract backlog of $155 billion at the end of Q4, reflecting growth of 28% year-on-year. The backlog includes multi-year commitments from financial services and retail clients, with the average contract term extending to five years. Cloud revenue for the last reported quarter rose 34% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI-optimized compute instances and data analytics platforms.
3. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Preview and Analyst Consensus
Ahead of the Feb. 4 earnings release, Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post forecasts fourth-quarter revenues of approximately $95.9 billion and EPS of $2.65, modestly above consensus. He projects Search revenue growth of 15%–16% and YouTube advertising expansion of 14%–15%, while operating expenses are seen rising by 13% year-on-year. Post lifted his 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $139 billion, attributing the increase to infrastructure build-out for AI services.
4. Legal Victory in Privacy Class Action
In late January, Alphabet secured a ruling in federal court in San Francisco rejecting consumer claims seeking over $2 billion in penalties related to alleged data collection after users disabled a privacy setting. The judge found that the plaintiffs failed to demonstrate concrete harm, a decision praised by legal experts as strengthening Alphabet’s defense posture in ongoing privacy litigation. This outcome removes a significant potential liability from the company’s regulatory and legal risk profile.