EIA expects gas- and propane-heated US homes to spend less this winter
UNG•The EIA expects average winter energy spending to fall 9% for homes primarily heated by natural gas and 3% for propane, while heating-oil households are expected to pay 21% more.
1. Winter heating costs
About half of US households primarily heat with natural gas or propane. The EIA expects natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above their previous five-year average, with robust production growth and relatively high inventories limiting price increases.
2. Heating oil outlook
The EIA expects households primarily using heating oil, about 3% of US homes and mostly in the Northeast, to pay about 21% more than last winter. It forecasts heating oil prices will rise 30%, partly offset by milder Northeast weather; East Coast distillate stockpiles were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to remain 20% to 30% below average through winter.
3. Consumption forecast
The EIA expects national winter temperatures to be about the same as last winter and the previous 10-winter average. Residential natural gas consumption is expected to remain flat year over year, while heating-oil consumption is forecast to fall 9% and propane consumption about 1%.
