FedEx reported a 17.2% upside to consensus earnings in its most recent quarter, driven by strong parcel volumes and price increases across key markets. This marked one of the largest positive surprises in the company’s recent history, boosting management’s confidence despite broader economic headwinds.

Analysts forecast a 9.2% drop in FedEx’s next quarterly earnings, citing rising fuel costs that have eroded operating margins. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose shipment delays and cost spikes, presenting significant downside risk to near-term profitability.