Ferrovial’s 407 ETR Reports CAD479M Q4 Revenue, CAD404M EBITDA Below Forecast
Ferrovial’s 407 ETR posted Q4 revenue of CAD479 million (+9.4% YoY) and EBITDA of CAD404 million (+9.2%), missing forecasts by CAD24 million and CAD22 million respectively. Traffic growth slowed to 5.7% from 9.4% in Q3, while a 25% tariff hike will underwrite 23% EBITDA growth in 2026.
1. Q4 Performance for 407 ETR Asset
Ferrovial’s 407 ETR toll road recorded Q4 revenue of CAD479 million (+9.4% YoY) and EBITDA of CAD404 million (+9.2%), falling short of consensus by CAD24 million and CAD22 million respectively. Traffic volumes grew 5.7% year-over-year, decelerating from 9.4% in Q3, while average revenue per trip rose 7.1%.
2. Tariff Increase Underpins 2026 EBITDA Growth
A tariff adjustment of roughly 25% took effect on January 1, 2026, which is anticipated to drive approximately 23% EBITDA growth in 2026, reflecting the asset’s pricing power and long-duration cash flows.
3. Dividend Rise and Consolidated EBITDA Forecasts
The asset delivered a CAD1.5 billion dividend for fiscal 2025, up 36% year-over-year. Consolidated group EBITDA for 2025 is projected at €1.39 billion, below the €1.42 billion consensus, while Toll Roads division EBITDA is estimated at €1.002 billion versus a €1.048 billion consensus.