iShares Bitcoin Trust Gains 0.9% in 10–10:30 a.m.; APs Avoid Spot Buys
Data show iShares Bitcoin Trust posted a cumulative +0.9% return in the 10:00–10:30 a.m. window and –1% from 10:00–10:15, tracking Nasdaq Composite moves rather than a systematic 10 a.m. selloff. Meanwhile, nine authorised participants can short IBIT shares without cash or borrowing costs and now deliver Bitcoin in-kind, reducing spot demand arbitrage.
1. No Consistent 10 a.m. Bitcoin Selloff
Economist Alex Krüger’s analysis of IBIT price action since January 1 shows no statistical pattern of a daily 10 a.m. dump. IBIT returned +0.9% from 10:00 to 10:30 a.m. and –1% in the first 15 minutes, movements that closely align with the Nasdaq Composite at market open.
2. AP Exemption Enables Costless ETF Shorts
Nine authorised participants—including Jane Street, Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities—can create and short IBIT shares without borrowing costs, capital requirements or deadlines to close positions, altering the natural buying pressure that should occur when shares trade below net asset value.
3. In-Kind Creation Weakens Spot Arbitrage
The SEC’s approval of in-kind creation and redemption lets APs deliver Bitcoin directly instead of cash, eliminating forced spot purchases by the fund’s custodian. This change undermines the arbitrage mechanism that traditionally drives ETF share prices back in line with underlying Bitcoin holdings.