Jefferies Lowers Roblox Price Target to $85 Citing Slower 2026 Bookings
Jefferies cut its Roblox price target to $85 from $100 while maintaining a Hold rating ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings release. The firm cited stable month-over-month user trends into January but warned that fiscal 2026 bookings growth could fall below 20% and compress EBITDA margins, pressuring valuation.
1. AI-Driven Creation and Discovery to Extend Revenue Runway
Roblox is integrating generative AI tools across its development ecosystem to boost creator productivity, enhance content discovery and streamline platform operations. In recent trials, creators using new AI code-generation assistants completed development tasks 30% faster, while AI-powered recommendation algorithms have increased time spent in promoted experiences by 12%. The company has also begun using machine-learning models to automate server scaling and fraud detection, reducing related operating costs by an estimated $15 million in the second half of 2025. By embedding AI at key points in the user journey—from world building to play—Roblox is laying the groundwork for more durable, scalable monetization that could sustain double-digit bookings growth beyond fiscal 2026.
2. Jefferies Lowers Forecast on Fiscal 2026 Bookings Uncertainty
Jefferies reduced its target valuation multiple to 30x forward EBITDA, down from 45x, and set an implied enterprise value tied to fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $1.93 billion. The revision followed a 38% decline in shares since the third-quarter 2025 results, despite record quarterly bookings and engagement metrics. Analysts highlighted stable daily active user counts into January—flat month-over-month since November—as a positive for near-term revenue visibility, but flagged second-half comparables as a risk. Investor focus is squarely on the company’s guide for fiscal 2026 bookings growth, where expectations for year-over-year gains above 20% may be trimmed or omitted entirely, creating a potential reset point for consensus estimates.