Mastercard Prices in About 7% Annual Revenue Growth for 2029–2035
MA•UBS’s HOLT framework shows Mastercard’s share price implies about 7% annual revenue growth from 2029 to 2035, below analysts’ forecast of low-double-digit growth over the next three years. This gap highlights a valuation disconnect that also affects peers such as Shopify, Block and Fidelity National Information Services.
1. UBS HOLT Valuation Analysis
UBS’s HOLT valuation framework focuses on long-term cash-generation ability to derive market-implied growth expectations for payments companies, highlighting potential misalignments between share prices and analyst forecasts.
2. Mastercard’s Implied Growth Estimates
Based on current share prices, Mastercard is pricing in roughly 7% annual revenue growth between 2029 and 2035, which falls short of consensus forecasts for low-double-digit growth over the next three years.
3. Consensus Forecasts vs. Market Expectations
Analysts anticipate mid-to-high-teens revenue growth for Mastercard through 2029, creating a multi-point gap compared to the HOLT-implied rate for the subsequent period.
4. Sector-Wide Growth Discrepancies
Similar disconnects appear among peers: Shopify at about 10% versus 25%, Block at low single digits versus mid-teens, and established firms like Fidelity National Information Services pricing in annual declines.
