Taboola Q4 Revenue Seen Falling 2.1% After Q3’s $176.8M, 7.1% Gain
Taboola’s Q4 revenue is forecast to decline 2.1% year-on-year, reversing the prior quarter’s 7.1% gain to $176.8 million. Analysts have largely maintained estimates after multiple revenue misses over two years, while peers QuinStreet and MediaAlpha reported mixed Q4 results.
1. Q4 Revenue Forecast
Taboola is expected to report a 2.1% year-on-year revenue decline for Q4, reversing a 25.3% increase in the same quarter last year. This forecast signals a slowdown after a strong mid-2025 performance cycle.
2. Q3 Performance Review
In Q3, Taboola generated $176.8 million in revenue, up 7.1% year-on-year, while beating EPS and issuing revenue guidance that exceeded consensus. That result marked one of the few quarters in which the company topped analysts’ projections.
3. Analyst Estimates and History
Over the past 30 days analysts have largely reconfirmed Q4 estimates, reflecting confidence in management’s guidance despite Taboola missing revenue targets multiple times in the last two years. The stability of forecasts suggests limited expectation for upside surprises.
4. Peer Q4 Results
Advertising peers reported divergent Q4 outcomes: QuinStreet recorded 1.9% revenue growth and beat estimates by 4.2%, driving its stock up 10.7%, while MediaAlpha saw a 3.2% decline and missed forecasts by 2.9%. These results may signal directional pressure on Taboola’s own report.