On Thursday, options volume for January 9 expiration puts and calls in Tesla stock surged to approximately 250,000 contracts, more than four times the stock’s average daily options activity. Traders concentrated heavily on near-term volatility ahead of the company’s January 28 earnings call, with put volume accounting for nearly 55% of the total. This spike reflects growing investor uncertainty over fourth-quarter delivery results and potential guidance revisions, as positions in both protective and speculative strategies drove open interest in short-dated strikes to record levels.

Tesla shares opened lower early Thursday following news that its self-driving technology will now face direct competition from Nvidia’s newly announced autonomy platform. Industry analysts note that Nvidia’s entrance into the lidar-free, vision-based autonomy space challenges Tesla’s long-standing optics-only approach. On the day of the announcement, Tesla’s shares slipped by roughly 1.5%, as market participants reassessed the pace at which Tesla can commercialize its Full Self-Driving suite relative to a company with far deeper GPU expertise and broader AI partnerships.

Gordon Johnson of GJL Research reiterated an overwhelmingly bearish stance on Tesla, issuing a price target of $25.28 — implying a 95% decline from recent levels — up from his prior $19.05 forecast but still predicated on a collapse scenario. Johnson’s thesis centers on Tesla’s underwhelming delivery growth in 2025, when Tesla shipped 1.63 million vehicles compared with China’s BYD at 2.26 million, and on repeated delays in promised Full Self-Driving breakthroughs. Despite rising share prices, Johnson argues that the company should be valued more like a traditional automaker rather than a technology or AI leader.

Despite the disappointing 2025 delivery figure of 1.63 million units, Tesla stock has delivered an 8.9% total return over the past 12 months, closing the latest session at levels near its July highs. The rally underscores investor confidence in Tesla’s long-term growth prospects — driven by expected ramp-ups in new factory capacity, potential software subscription revenue, and the eventual commercialization of its self-driving Robotaxi fleet — even as near-term production and delivery metrics fall short of Wall Street’s initial targets.