US labor market firms as jobless claims near 57-year low
SPY•US initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 197,000 for the week ended September 26, near a 57-year low, while continuing claims dropped 11,000 to 1.701 million. Planned September layoffs fell 18% to 43,281, but hiring intentions were down 23% from a year earlier.
1. Claims remain low
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped to 197,000, below economists’ 200,000 forecast. Claims have stayed below 200,000 for three straight weeks. Continuing claims fell to 1.701 million, their lowest level since April 2023.
2. Hiring plans remain cautious
Planned layoffs by US-based employers declined 18% in September to 43,281, while announced cuts were down 20% from a year earlier. Employers’ hiring plans rose to 90,787, up from 12,325 in August, but were 23% lower than a year earlier and the lowest September tally since 2011. The report said the usual surge in seasonal hiring was absent.
3. Economic and rate context
Economists said resilient domestic demand and corporate profits were helping shield workers from layoffs, while elevated energy and material costs remained a concern. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Markets priced in a 37.1% chance of another rate increase at the October 27-28 meeting, down from 68.6% a week earlier.
