Nebius Group Shares Slide 11% Following Oracle Revenue Miss and $12B Capex

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Nebius stock slid 11% in December following Oracle's Q1 results that missed revenue estimates and showed $12 billion in capex, then rebounded on Micron's strong earnings and a CoreWeave upgrade. Shares have gained 15% year-to-date through January 7, fueled by positive AI sector sentiment and Nebius’s planned H2 2026 Rubin platform deployment.

1. Nebius Group’s Rapid Value Surge and Contractual Backlog

Over the past year, Nebius Group’s market capitalization has more than tripled as revenue growth accelerated and its enterprise pipeline expanded. Investors who allocated $1,000 to the company twelve months ago would now hold a position valued at over $3,200. This performance reflects strong quarterly results driven by a $20+ billion contractual backlog, anchored by multi-year agreements including a $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft through 2031 and a $3 billion deal with Meta Platforms spanning five years.

2. Supply-Constrained AI Data Center Market and Capacity Expansion

Demand for AI computing power continues to outpace available supply, with Deloitte forecasting U.S. data center power needs rising from 4 GW in 2024 to 123 GW by 2035. Nebius is expanding its connected power capacity from 220 MW at the end of 2025—ten times its 2024 level—to a targeted 800–1,000 MW this year, and has since lifted its contracted power goal for 2026 to 2.5 GW. All newly added capacity is pre-sold under long-term arrangements, insulating the company from build-out risk and securing predictable revenue streams.

3. Long-Term Growth Prospects and Portfolio Considerations

Analysts project Nebius’s top line to climb significantly as it fulfills its $20+ billion backlog over the next five years. With contracted capacity ramping and customer financing tied directly to build-out costs, the company is positioned to translate projected annualized revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by end-2026 into sustainable cash flow. Its end-to-end hardware and software platform for AI development makes it a compelling candidate for growth-oriented portfolios seeking exposure to the generative AI infrastructure boom.

Sources

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